The 150th anniversary of the most exciting two-minutes in sports.  Or, as Secretariat demonstrated 51 years ago… the most exciting 1 minute and 59 seconds in sports.  A Derby record which remains to this day.

 

Will there be another Secretariat in this field of 20?  Probably not.  But it’s the thought that there may be a super champion in this year’s crop that gets me excited.  Last year, MAGE upset the Derby field and surprised all (except a few of our celebrity handicappers) with the win.  The year before, RICH STRIKE shocked the world, winning as the longest shot on the board.  Then there was JUSTIFY in 2018 and AMERICAN PHAROAH in 2015, each winning the Triple Crown, following a 37-year Triple Crown drought.  And don’t forget the great SMARTY JONES, winner of the 2004 Derby.  Great day for PA breds, for sure. 

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It's that anticipation that makes this race so great.  Arguably, the 20 best three-year-old thoroughbreds in the world, all checking in to Louisville to compete against each other at 1 1/4 miles for the prestige and a piece of the $5 Million purse. 

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And so much drama:  The favorite 17-FIERCENESS is owned by Mike Repole, a guy who made a billion after selling vitamin water from the trunk of his car in Queens, NJ; vs. the elite, 2-SIERRA LEONE, owned by the rich and famous who bought this pony as a yearling for a whopping $2.3 Million;  vs. an $11K purchase in 13-WEST SARATOGA; vs. two horses flying in from Japan:  10- TO PASSWORD and 11-FOREVER YOUNG, they are six wins in six starts between them.  So much drama, so exciting.

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HOW TO HANDICAP THE DERBY:

Handicapping the Derby is different from all other races.  You will never find another race with a field of twenty lightly raced horses competing before 150,000 screaming fans. 

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That is why most traditional means of analyzing THIS horserace are out the window.  There are two basic rules to follow when handicapping this race:

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1.  History DOES repeat itself.  So, look at the past ten years of Derby races and understand the patterns; and

2. Give yourself wiggle room for the unexpected.  Here, I love to include an ALL bet in exotic boxes.  I note that in the past ten years, the average trifecta payout on a $1 bet exceeds $4K.  That includes races with winning favorites in five of ten races. The ALL bet covers you for the unexpected, e.g., Rich Strike winning at 80-1.

 

DERBY HISTORY:  HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF, SO...

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I took a deep dive into the Derby results from 2014-2023.  Here are few relevant findings:

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1. In the past ten years, the favorite won in five races:  2014 (California Chrome), 2105 (American Pharoah), 2016 (Nyquist), 2017 (Always Dreaming), 2018 (Justify).  However, no favorite has won since 2018.

2. Winning post positions have been:  5, 18, 13, 5, 7, 20 (after 7 was disqualified), 18, 7(after 8 was disqualified), 21, 8.  Thus, no inside posts have won in the past ten years.

3. No horse shipped in from overseas has ever won the Derby.

4. The pace matters... Let’s look at the early pace times of the race:

2014: 23.04, 47.37, 1:11.80 – winner was third by head, took lead at stretch, won by 5

 

2015: 23.24, 47.34, 1:11.29 – winner was third by 1-3 lengths, took lead at stretch, won by 1

 

2016: 22:58, 45.72, 1:10.40 – winner was 2nd-3rd by 1-5 lengths, took lead at stretch, won by 1 ¼

 

2017 wet track (fast and sealed): 22.70, 46.53, 1:11.12 – winner second by 1 length, took lead in backstretch, opened to 3 lengths at stretch, won by 2 ¾

 

2018 sloppy track: 22.24, 45.77, 1:11.01: winner was 2nd by 1 ½ lengths, took lead around turn, had 2 ½ length lead at stretch, won by 2 ½

 

2019 sloppy track: 22.31, 46.62, 1:12.50 – winner (ultimately disqualified) was first by 1 length down backstretch, fell to second by head at the mile marker, had the lead at the stretch, won by 1 ¾

 

2020:  22.92, 46.41, 1:10.23 – winner went wire to wire. Up by 1 length, won by 1 ¼

 

2021: 23.09, 46.70, 1:11.21 – winner (later disqualified) went wire to wire.  Up by ½ length, won by ½

 

2022: 21.78, 45.36, 1:10.34 – winner (longshot at 80-1) started 18th of 20, was 15th about 9 lengths back at the mile marker, third at stretch 4 lengths back, won by ¾

 

2023: 22.35, 45.73, 1:10.11 – winner was 14-16th, 6th at mile marker about 3 lengths back, 2nd at stretch, won by 1 length

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What do we discern from these figures and information?

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1. I am mindful that sloppy tracks make a difference in terms of times and ability of deep closers to make up ground in the slop.  2017, 2018, 2019.

2. In eight of ten past Derby’s, the ultimate winner was in front or closely tracked the leaders, especially when the early pace was not super-fast.

3. In 2022 and 2023, the closers won the race.  The early pace was very fast in both races.  In both races, the 6-furlong marker times were the two of three fastest in ten years.  In 2022, the three frontrunners finished 15th, 13th, and 20th. In 2023, the three frontrunners fell to 16th, 14th, and 13th respectively.  Thus, the fast pace will doom the frontrunners.

 

Here is my recap of all the horses:

 

1-DORNOCH.  The unlucky inside poll position may hurt this colt’s chance to get off to a good start required to grab an early lead, which is a prerequisite for this horse to have any chance.  He is a frontrunner.  A talented horse as reflected by his three wins and two seconds in six career races, including wins in the G-2 Fountain of Youth and G-2 Remsen.  He will need to break well and maintain the lead to have a chance.  Tough to do here, especially if the pace is faster than usual.

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2-SIERRA LEONE.  Second favorite here.  This colt was purchased as a yearling for $2.3 Million.  Wow!  Sired by champion sire Gun Runner, this horse is bred for the Derby distance.  Five career races, four wins, and a second by a nose to 1-DORNCH.  This colt is a deep closer.  He will benefit from the anticipated quick pace in this race.  Watch for this horse down the stretch but be mindful that he needs to cut through many horses in front to win. 

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3-MYSTIK DAN. In six prior races, only one race stands out, the G-3 Southwest in which he flew down the stretch impressively to defeat a modest field by eight lengths.  That happened to be on a muddy track.  Otherwise, nothing remarkable here.

 

4-CATCHING FREEDOM. This $575K yearling purchase is “catching” a lot of attention.  Three nice wins in five career starts.  One of the two entered here trained by Brad Cox, ultimate winner of the 2021 Derby.  Like 2-SIERRA LEONE, a deep closer.  His win in the G-1 Louisiana Derby was spectacular.  Fast pace in that race set this colt up for a nice win.  Again, to win here requires finding a path past most horses to win.  Jockey Flavien Prat did just that in the 2019 Derby with Country House.  

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5-CATALYTIC. Lightly raced with only three career starts, with only one win in his maiden race.  Finished a surprising second in the Florida Derby to favorite 17-FIERCENESS at 29-1.  Outsider with these.

 

6-JUST STEEL. The most experienced horse in the race with eleven prior starts, winning two.  His speed ratings in those prior races are not top tier, but he always finds a way to be in the money.  Most recently second in the G-1 Arkansas Derby against a tough field.  He likes to stay mid-pack during the run, so he may stay on to grab a piece of the exotics in the end. 

 

7. HONOR MARIE.  Another deep closer with talent.  This one without elite pedigree.  Like 2-SIERRA LEONE and 4-CATCHING FREEDOM, this colt will need to pass many horses to win the race.  Tough to do.  If you watch the G-2 Louisiana Derby, you saw a quick pace, with 4-CATCHING FREEDOM and 7-HONOR MARIE charging forward on the far outside to pass horses until they finished first and second in that race, respectively.  Hard to choose one over the other in this race.         

 

8. JUST A TOUCH.  Must watch this one.  His one negative is his inexperience.  But what we saw from last year’s Derby winner, Mage, experience doesn’t always matter.  This $300K yearling purchase is trained by Brad Cox and has yet to show all his talent.  Oh, it’s going to come.  His first two races were on wet tracks.  He won the first and finished second in the other.  Then, this colt ran a big race in the G-1 Blue Grass against a tough field.  In that race, the early pace was blistering, and he stayed with the leaders.  He grabbed the lead in the stretch, only to fall second to winner 2-SIERRA LEONE who was charging from behind the field. 

His sire is Triple Crown winner Justify.  It appears that the apple did not fall from the tree.  Certainly, an exotics play.

 

9. ENCINO. SCRATCHED

 

10. TO PASSWORD.  This colt and the one to follow 11-FOREVER YOUNG ship in from Japan.  No horse shipping in from overseas has ever won the Derby in its 150-year history.  Having said that, I recognize that there will come a time when one of these horses win the race, it’s inevitable.  So why not this year?  Not sure it will be with this lightly raced colt.  Two career races, two wins.  Not much more to go on.  Leading me to…

 

11. FOREVER YOUNG.  For the reasons express above, it is hard to bet against history.  However, this horse could be special and different from all others vying for the Derby from overseas.  This Japanese colt is the real deal and may be the one to finally end the international drought.  Four races, four impressive wins.  The last victory was in the G-2 UAE Derby, a race with a $10 Million purse.  I’ve read that the trainer doesn’t think the horse likes to have dirt kicked in his face.  Hard to avoid here.  Talent alone makes this horse interesting.  A real chance to win and remain undefeated... if he can break the jinx. 

 

12. TRACK PHANTOM. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s lone entrant is this $500K yearling purchase.  The trainer is adding blinkers for focus.  This horse is an early pace setter.  He always runs to the lead.  He held on three of seven attempts, all races with decent speed ratings.  I can see this boy running to the lead and try to hold on.  Otherwise, expect serious challenges around the far turn.  More likely than not to fade down the stretch.

 

13. WEST SARATOGA.  A standout because this colt is the lone gray horse in the field, so you will always know where he is during the race.  This colt was purchased for a paltry $11K as a yearling and, thus, is the choice of all horse owners who cannot afford a $2.3 Million purchase, ala 2-SIERRA LEONE.  Well, good investment because in ten career starts, this horse has earned $460K, with more to come.  While the colt is consistent in his races, the speed ratings have him below the average in this field.

 

14. ENDLESSLY. The trainer did not want to enter this colt in the Derby, but the ownership said otherwise, so here we are.  Hard to like a horse if the trainer is not on board.  Probably has to do with the fact that this colt has never run on a dirt track before.  His six prior races (winning five) have been on turf or a synthetic surface. 

 

15. DOMESTIC PRODUCT.  I must admit that I spent more time looking at this horse than all others.  While the Brisnet charts rate this horse last (20th of 20), I take exception to that designation.  Perhaps I am overthinking this.  This Chad Brown trained colt has run five times, winning two, the last race being the G-2 Tampa Derby which he won.  The speed ratings have been comparatively slow, prompting the Brisnet low rating, I’m sure.  However, the pace in that race, and the one before it was very, very slow.  It’s hard to measure a speed rating when all the horses in the race are crawling.  Notwithstanding the slow early pace, the final quarter times of this colt in his last two races exceed all other final quarter times from others.  That is impressive.  I have this horse as a live longshot.

 

16. GRAND MO THE FIRST. A longshot who does not have the credentials to be seriously considered.  I said the same about Rich Strike in 2022, and he won at odds of 80-1.  Still, this colt trained by first-time Derby trainer Victor Barboza, finished third behind 15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT in the Tampa Derby, and third behind Derby favorite 17-FIERCENESS in the G-1 Florida Derby.

 

17. FIERCENESS.  A worthy Derby favorite given his spectacular performance in the G-1 Florida Derby.  Owned by Mike Repole who owned last year’s Derby favorite Forte before that horse was scratched due to injury.  Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, winner of two Derby’s.  Ridden by jockey John Velazquez, winner of three Derby’s.  This colt is the best horse in the race. He has three wins in five starts, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Championship, a race he won by six lengths.  He can run in the lead or track just behind the leaders.  Here, most likely the latter.  I love the 17th post position because he presumably won’t get caught in the inside traffic.  The only concern is the expected quick pace in this race.  He runs best when he is comfortable at or off the lead at a manageable pace.  When he finds trouble, he runs off the board.  The key question with this colt is whether he gets a clean trip from the break and wins or gets bogged down with all the early bumping and bruising sometimes found in this cavalry charge.  That could be the difference between winning and losing.  I predict winning.

 

18. STRONGHOLD. Here is the west coast entrant, winner of the G-1 Santa Anita Derby.  A good, but not overly impressive win against modest competition.  This horse likes to sit back just off the leaders which would be good given the expected fast early pace.  However, to get into position from the 18th post position could be a challenge.  I don’t love the distance pedigree on his mom’s side of the family as broodmare sire Jimmy Creed progeny like the shorter races.  Still, if this colt gets into position early, he could be a factor in the exotics.

 

19. RESILIENCE.  From west coast to east coast, this colt won the G-2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.  Trainer Bill Mott always has his horses ready for the big race, and this colt will be no exception.  His run in the Wood Memorial was impressive as he wore blinkers for the first time and responded with his highest speed rating to date.  I note that his regular jockey John Velasquez has decided to ride 17-FIERCENESS which tells you a lot about these two horses.  Like his west coast counterpart 18-STRONGHOLD, this colt likes to sit just off the lead.  If he can get into that position from the hinterland of post 19, then he could be in the exotics.

 

20. SOCIETY MAN. This gelding won the lottery ticket by finishing second at 106-1 in the G-2 Wood Memorial giving him enough points to squeak into the Derby field.  He then lost the lottery by drawing the 20th post position.  That position was a non-starter for any horse until Rich Strike won from the 21st pole in 2022.  So, who knows?  The second place Wood finish was a shocker.  Prior to that race, this horse had run well once, a maiden victory against very mild competition.  He would have to elevate his game once again to be competitive here.

 

21. EPIC RIDE. This colt gets into the race because of the 9-ENCINO scratch.  He’s a good Kentucky based horse who fared well in non-graded stakes races at Turfway Park before his good effort in the G-1 Blue Grass, where he finished third at 51-1 behind 2-SIERRA LEONE and 8-JUST A TOUCH.  I suspect the plan with this outsider is to take advantage of the outside spot to avoid traffic early on, then settle behind the leaders.  It is difficult to see how he can win without a huge bump in performance. 

 

HOW THE RACE WILL UNFOLD:

 

We can count on several competitors vying for positions up front.  1-DORNOCH, 12- TRACK PHANTOM, and 10-TO PASSWORD are the most obvious front runners.  They will be tracked by several, including 17-FIERCENESS, 8-JUST A TOUCH, 15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT, and 19-RESILIENCE. 

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The pace will determine the race.  It will be fast, but perhaps not as fast as some predict.  Think 2016, when the pace was fast, but not blistering.  In 2016, winner Nyquist sat off the lead, took the lead at the turn and never looked back.  I can see that happening here. 

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That will set up well for the favorite 17-FIERCENESS.  Expect 8-JUST A TOUCH to remain competitive as the field closes ranks.  Be assured that the deep closers will be making a run.

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As they round the turn, several will be in contention, 17-FIERCENESS, 8-JUST A TOUCH, 2-SIERRA LEONE, 4-CATCHING FREEDOM, 7-HONOR MARIE, 11-FOREVER YOUNG, and 15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT.   The frontrunners fade, giving way to the trackers and closers.  Positioning here is everything.  For the deep closers, it all depends on the brilliance of the jockey, matched with good luck. 

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At the wire it is 17-FIERCENESS as the winner. John Velasquez wins his fourth Derby.  It is the same ride he gave to Always Dreaming in 2017, Authentic in 2020, and Medina Spirit in 2021.  Brilliantly controlling the pace and striking at the perfect time.  

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HOW TO BET:

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17-FIERCENESS is the best horse in the race.  He has the best trainer.  He has the best jockey.  And while he is the favorite, I don’t expect the odds to dip below 3-1.  That is a good price. 

 

11-FOREVER YOUNG may be, just maybe, that good too.  I pick him as my second choice over 2-SIERRA LEONE, 4-CATCHING FREEDOM, 7-HONOR MARIE because I'm not sure these closers can shift through the traffic as required for deep closers.  And how do you pick one from this equally talented threesome.  I didn't select 8-JUST A TOUCH due to lack of experience.  I picked 15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT as my longshot, knowing that the race could be his under the right circumstances.  

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So, what I intend to do is box 17-FIERCENESS with a bunch of ALL bets.

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TO WIN:

17-FIERCENESS

 

LONGSHOT:

15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT

 

EXACTA:

17/11 BOX

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TRIFECTA

17/11/ALL BOX

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SUPERFECTA

17/11/2/15 BOX & 17/11/2/8 BOX

KEY 17 WITH 11/2/ALL

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BONUS - KENTUCKY OAKS:  13-JUST FYI - OAKS EXACTA BOX: 13/5

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GOOD LUCK!

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CELEBRITY HANDICAPPERS:

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LEFTY LOUIE:  4-CATCHING FREEDOM

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This is a difficult race to handicap. Having watched and successfully wagered every race by both Fierceness (17) and Sierra Leone (2), it is hard to ignore either one of them in predicting the winner of this race. Fierceness is the best horse in this race. Sierra Leone is the best finisher and the most competitive. He simply knows how to win. However, I don’t think their respective  draws in the starting gate is favorable to either of them. Unless Fierceness darts out to the front of the pack, he will get too congested in the traffic to win the race. It will be very difficult to get to the front and when he doesn’t, he has trouble. Sierra Leone is not a fast starter and can also get caught up behind so many faster starting horses. I think the horse best positioned to win is Catching Freedom (4). He was very impressive in the Louisiana Derby and seems to improve with each race. Flavien Prat will guide this horse into the lead in the stretch and will hold on just enough to deny a surging Sierra Leone from a Derby win.

 

My wagers:

Win 4

Exacta 4-2 , will box this bet just in case!

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DANNY DIMES: 7-HONOR MARIE

 

7-HONOR MARIE fast track

3-MYSTIK DAN wet track

9-ENCINO live longshot

20-SOCIETY MAN - bombs away

 

I can't remember a Derby with such a wide disparity of talent and results based on the weather, but here we are. Not sure if I am 100% sold a top pick until I see the track conditions on Saturday. I am playing everything late.

 

With that said, my top pick in neutral conditions would be 7-HONOR MARIE. Recent Derbys have seen blistering paces, and I think this horse is perfectly suited to capitalize on that. He gets an extra furlong, is 2 for 3 at Churchill, and you can't go wrong betting on any Brad Cox entry. Great value for now at 20-1 but I would expect that to go way down to 11 or 12 if the conditions are fast at post time. Of course, I am hearing this is already the "wise guy" horse, and they never seem to pan out. 

 

I am really struggling as to my strategy for 3-MYSTIK DAN. I would slightly but not completely fade on this horse if the conditions are fast. However, I will be all-in if it rains. This is the clear specialist on sloppy tracks, and again, a blistering pace will favor him. Or maybe not. Is he the big closer as seen in the last 2 races, or the stalker who may or may not close the deal? Will absolutely be in my bets, and will decide at what level on race day.

 

My live longshot is 9-ENCINO. I absolutely love this horse down the road at Saratoga, etc, so why wait? Late bloomer who got in at the last minute 3 weeks ago. This is usually a formula for defeat, but I think his numbers show he can run on any surface in any condition. Can lead or go way off the pace to make it interesting at the very least. These Turfway runners always seem to do well in challenging conditions at the Derby and the surface there works with an off-track in the rain at Churchill. Did I mention he is sired by 2 Derby winners? Also has Brad Cox. Using him in my exotics and hopefully will deliver even more.

 

Bombs away for a winner. 20-SOCIETY MAN. There is NO WAY I am not throwing money at Frankie Dettori on a 50-1 in the Derby. Wet conditions? This jockey is the master of that in Europe! Absolutely getting money.

 

Bombs away on the Exotics; 6-JUST STEEL, 15-DOMESTIC PRODUCT

 

Why no favorites? Nothing against them, but I am a value player at the Derby. Considering in the exotics.

 

Finally, don't forget the 2 Also Eligibles. Will have to at least consider them in some way or another if they get in, and that is very possible with the projected weather.

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HOWIE THE HORSE:  18-STRONGHOLD

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1) Stronghold - Impressive winner of the Santa Anita Derby appears to be rounding into top shape with a bullet workout over the CD course.

 

2)Catching Freedom - The Louisiana Derby winner. A big closer who will be flying in the stretch. 

 

3) Fierceness - The Florida Derby winner who will the odds on favorite after that huge win. 

 

4) Society Man - Ran a big race in Wood Memorial finishing 2nd at 106-1odds. After shipping to CD he followed that race up with a blistering workout. I feel Society Man has a very good chance to hit the board. 

 

Sierra Leone & Dornach should be included in your Exotic wagering. So wrapping up we have:

18-4-17-20

Also include: 2-1 

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